Monitoring Two Tropical Disturbances and One Tropical Storm within the Atlantic
The Nationwide Hurricane Middle is monitoring a tropical disturbances within the Atlantic together with one lively tropical storm, and has recognized one other within the Gulf. The system within the Atlantic has a low probability of growth over the subsequent a number of days, whereas the one within the Gulf has a close to 0% probability of formation
SCREEN. FOR THE LATEST ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN, I SHOWED YOU THE TOP OF THE BROADCAST AS IT’S STARTING TO GO THROUGH A STRENGTHENING PROCESS ONCE AGAIN. PONTCHARTRAIN CONSERVANCY CAM LOCALLY. BACK AT HOME, WE’VE GOT A COUPLE OF CLOUDS AND SOME OF THESE DUE TO AT LEAST A WEAK SYSTEM THAT IS CHURNING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THAT WILL SHOW IN A BIT, BUT IT’S ALL EYES ON FOCUS ON AARON HERE TONIGHT. REALLY. WE’VE SEEN A LOT OF DECREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY SHOWN RIGHT THERE, BUT THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED EARLIER. TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORMED THIS MORNING THEN WENT THROUGH A WEAKENING PROCESS RIGHT THERE. THEN BACK TO A STRENGTHENING PROCESS. A LITTLE WIGGLE AND WOBBLE. YOU CAN SEE THERE. IT’S TRYING TO FIND MAYBE A CENTER RELOCATION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WHICH IS ACTUALLY HIDDEN BENEATH THE STORM. STILL TROPICAL STORM AS WE GO THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS NOW FORECAST TO BE A CATEGORY ONE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, UP TO A CATEGORY TWO BY THURSDAY EVENING. BUT YOU START TO SEE THERE’S A LITTLE BEND IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN THIS RED LINE. A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD. AND BY SATURDAY EVENING, THIS IS WHERE IT COULD BE NOT ONLY THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON, BUT THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. PUERTO RICO, HAITI, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, THE BAHAMAS, RIGHT HERE, BERMUDA AND THE FORECAST DATA I’M GOING TO SHOW YOU RIGHT NOW, LOOKING. FAVORABLE, THAT THERE’S A CHANCE ERIN MAY NOT MAKE LANDFALL ANYWHERE. THESE ARE FORECASTS, TRACKS SHOWN FROM FORECASTS SPECIFICALLY TO GO WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS. AND THE BIG FAT GREEN LINE IS KIND OF A MEDIAN LINE AND MAIN LINE. LOOK AT THESE FORECAST DATA. AND THIS IS OUR ENSEMBLE DATA OUT OF THE UNITED STATES. WE RUN A FORECAST. MAKE A CHANGE. WE DO IT AGAIN 30 TIMES TO SEE WHERE WE END UP. AND YOU CAN SEE THIS IS REALLY CLOSE TO THE CENTER LINE. AND THEN THE FORECAST OUT OF EUROPE VERY SIMILAR AS WELL. AS WE SAY, THERE’S A LOT OF AGREEMENT IN OUR FORECAST, WHICH IS A VERY GOOD THING. GOTTEN SO MUCH BETTER JUST OVER THE LAST EVEN FIVE YEARS WITH SOME OF THIS DATA. BUT YOU CAN START TO SEE THE END THROUGH THE FORECAST DATA FROM EUROPE THAT THERE’S A BEND NORTHWARD, CAN TAKE IT UP TO TEN DAYS. I MEASURE AT ONE POINT HERE IF IT’S GOING TO BE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE, THIS COULD BE NEARLY 700 MILES IN DIAMETER FROM PUERTO RICO BACK TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHIELDS BEING PROJECTED. AND THERE’S A LOOK JUST SKIRTING WEST OF BERMUDA, STAYING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. NO CHANCE IT GOES TO THE CARIBBEAN. NO CHANCE IT GOES TO THE GULF. BUT IT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, TO BE AT LEAST A STRONG HURRICANE, IF NOT A MAJOR HURRICANE LOCALLY. BACK AT HOME THOUGH, NO IMPACT TO US. THERE IS THIS WEAK LITTLE CHURN THAT TRIED TO GET SOMETHING GOING TODAY, BUT THIS IS ACTUALLY MOVING UP TO THE ALABAMA TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FLORA-BAMA OR FLORIDA PANHANDLE, FLORA-BAMA REGION. RIGHT? IF IT WOULD HAVE REMAINED OVER, WATER CONDITIONS WERE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. NEARLY 90 DEGREE WATER TEMPERATURES, ATMOSPHERIC HUMIDITY, NOT MUCH WIND SHEAR. FROM A WIDE PERSPECTIVE, THERE IS STORM ACTIVITY SHOWN NOW IN THE LATEST CLUSTER TOMORROW, AND THEN WE GET STORM ACTIVITY THAT MIGHT BLOW NORTHWARD FROM THERE. STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF HUMIDITY AND STORMS TO GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOT UNTIL WE GET TO THURSDAY WE START TO SEE THAT BIG BUBBLE OF HEAT IS GOING TO GROW RIGHT UP OVER TOP OF US ONCE AGAIN, AND THAT’S GOING TO LIMIT AND SUPPRESS SOME OF THE STORM ACTIVITY. BUT IT DOES MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE GOING UP THE LAST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN TRACKING. NOW NOTHING OUT OF INVEST 90 6LA LITTLE SOMETHING FROM A SYSTEM THAT’S NON-TROPICAL. IF IT COULD INTERACT WITH THE GULF STREAM. BUT REALLY, IT’S ALL ERIN IS ALL SHE WROTE. AND THAT’S ALL THE CONCERN, WHICH IS NONE FOR LOUISIANA. JUST THAT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, GULF HUMIDITY, STORMS. WE TOPPED OUT TODAY AT ABOUT 9291. REAL TIME TEMPERATURES, 70S AND 80S. OF COURSE, IT FEELS MUCH HOTTER. THE HIGH RES FORECAST WANTS TO SHOW THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORNING STORMS. AND THEN AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE INFLUENCE OF THAT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE JUST EAST OF US, HIGH TEMPERATURE, LIMITED TO 99 TO 80 9 TO 90. THAT’S WITH THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. SO SCHOOL DAY FORECAST HAVE THE RAIN GEAR WITH THE KIDS HEADED OUT THE DOOR. YOUR WORKDAY FORECAST THE SAME TO WDSU. FIRST WARNING WEATHER SEVEN DAY STORMY THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BUT THEN AS T
Monitoring Two Tropical Disturbances and One Tropical Storm within the Atlantic
The Nationwide Hurricane Middle is monitoring a tropical disturbances within the Atlantic together with one lively tropical storm, and has recognized one other within the Gulf. The system within the Atlantic has a low probability of growth over the subsequent a number of days, whereas the one within the Gulf has a close to 0% probability of formation
Full outlook on TROPICAL STORM ERIN. SYSTEM 1 – NORTHEAST GULF:A weak space of low stress within the Northeastern Gulf simply off the Florida Coast is producing a cluster of showers and storms that is not forecast to develop earlier than transferring on shore. Nonetheless, it may nonetheless carry heavy rain and doable flooding to elements of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana in the present day and Wednesday. WHAT WE KNOW:Likelihood of growth over the subsequent 2 days: Close to 0percentChance of growth over the subsequent 3-7 days: Close to 0percentIMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA:Heavy rain doable SYSTEM 2 – NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC:The NHC is monitoring a non-tropical low stress system positioned a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of Nova Scotia. Whereas storm exercise is at present restricted, the system will transfer over the nice and cozy waters of the Gulf Stream, which may enable for some tropical or subtropical growth within the subsequent day or two.By midweek, the system is anticipated to go north over cooler waters, ending any probability of additional growth.WHAT WE KNOW:Likelihood of growth over the subsequent 2 days: Low 10percentChance of growth over the subsequent 3-7 days: Low, 10percentIMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA:NoneHere is a take a look at the lengthy vary (2-3 week) tropics outlook from the Local weather Prediction Middle. It confirmed a larger than 40% probability of tropical growth within the central tropical Atlantic a while from Wednesday, August thirteenth to Tuesday, August nineteenth. That is lining up with what we see taking place with Tropical Storm Erin. One other space highlighted close to the Cape Verde islands has a larger than 20% probability of growth. These are from tropical waves exiting the coast of Africa which have a possible to develop. Stick with the WDSU First Warning Climate group for the most recent within the tropics.
Full outlook on TROPICAL STORM ERIN.
SYSTEM 1 – NORTHEAST GULF:
A weak space of low stress within the Northeastern Gulf simply off the Florida Coast is producing a cluster of showers and storms that is not forecast to develop earlier than transferring on shore. Nonetheless, it may nonetheless carry heavy rain and doable flooding to elements of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana in the present day and Wednesday.
WHAT WE KNOW:
Likelihood of growth over the subsequent 2 days: Close to 0%
Likelihood of growth over the subsequent 3-7 days: Close to 0%
IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA:
Heavy rain doable
SYSTEM 2 – NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC:
The NHC is monitoring a non-tropical low stress system positioned a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of Nova Scotia. Whereas storm exercise is at present restricted, the system will transfer over the nice and cozy waters of the Gulf Stream, which may enable for some tropical or subtropical growth within the subsequent day or two.
By midweek, the system is anticipated to go north over cooler waters, ending any probability of additional growth.
WHAT WE KNOW:
Likelihood of growth over the subsequent 2 days: Low 10%
Likelihood of growth over the subsequent 3-7 days: Low, 10%
IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA:
None
Here’s a take a look at the lengthy vary (2-3 week) tropics outlook from the Local weather Prediction Middle. It confirmed a larger than 40% probability of tropical growth within the central tropical Atlantic a while from Wednesday, August thirteenth to Tuesday, August nineteenth. That is lining up with what we see taking place with Tropical Storm Erin. One other space highlighted close to the Cape Verde islands has a larger than 20% probability of growth. These are from tropical waves exiting the coast of Africa which have a possible to develop.
Stick with the WDSU First Warning Climate group for the most recent within the tropics.
