NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Rafael is now a class one storm with winds of 80 mph Tuesday night. This storm will proceed to strengthen by way of the day Wednesday earlier than making landfall in Cuba.

Between two to a few days from now, forecast fashions recommend Rafael might take a extra westward flip as excessive stress builds additional west alongside the northern Gulf Coast. After this era, the storm’s path turns into much less sure, with fashions cut up on the place it could go and the way sturdy it could be.

The newest forecast Tuesday night from the NHC carries the storm additional west into the Gulf earlier than making a northward flip to Louisiana. It additionally weakens the storm fairly a bit after the northward flip however does maintain it a hurricane into the central Gulf earlier than that.

Some forecast fashions, just like the GFS, present a weakened ridge of excessive stress that might permit a northward flip, whereas others, together with the European mannequin (ECMWF), point out a stronger excessive stress system favoring a westward monitor. Till there’s a extra definitive development within the fashions, the forecast cone reveals a gradual northward flip over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

With an internal wind core now in place, Rafael is prone to strengthen rapidly over the following 24 hours. It’s anticipated to succeed in hurricane power throughout the subsequent few hours because it strikes by way of the Cayman Islands and should intensify additional earlier than reaching Cuba.

As soon as the storm strikes north of the center of the Gulf of Mexico, Rafael is anticipated to come across sturdy wind shear, drier air, and cooler sea temperatures, probably inflicting the storm to weaken and step by step dissipate.

The Nationwide Hurricane Middle says it stays too early to find out any potential impacts Rafael might carry to the northern Gulf Coast.

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