Rafael has been downgraded to a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph, shifting west-northwest at 6 mph. It made landfall in Cuba as a class 3 storm Wednesday afternoon round 3:15 pm CT. It is forecast to weaken because it continues within the Gulf.

As Rafael continues its course, it ought to weaken significantly because it encounters unfavorable circumstances in cooler water temperatures, drier air, and excessive wind shear.

Southeast Louisiana is not within the forecast cone, however we might be impacts from this technique this weekend.

Some fashions are nonetheless in disagreement on the place Rafael will head, however most fashions are in settlement that Rafael will inch nearer to Louisiana however will keep offshore. We expect to really feel the impacts this weekend. Listed below are the spaghetti plots as of 3AM Saturday.

SATURDAY ANALYSIS:

The most recent forecast observe from the Nationwide Hurricane Heart reveals Rafael will make a loop over the weekend earlier than shifting south. It would then proceed to lose its power.

The forecast out of Europe is now coming extra into line with enhanced rain possibilities for Southeast Louisiana this weekend.

Rain chances are high trying increasingly seemingly this weekend. Regionally heavy rain is feasible each Saturday and Sunday with low dangers, a marginal risk for doable flooding.

CURRENT ENVIRONMENT:

Water temperatures within the Caribbean are nonetheless VERY heat with readings close to 90! Water temperatures start to chill significantly the farther north you journey via the Gulf of Mexico.

Humidity is excessive within the Caribbean however drier air hovers over the Gulf of Mexico.

A powerful storm shifting via the Southern U.S. will start to develop fairly a little bit of wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico.

FORECAST DATA:

The World Forecast System out of the U.S. has been constant in monitoring the eventual storm east of us because it encounters a robust southwesterly circulate from the sturdy storm shifting via the Southern U.S.

Forecast knowledge out of Europe (ECMWF – European Centre for Medium-Vary Climate Forecasts) take the system south of us.

Each fashions present it meandering within the Gulf, which can deliver us rain and powerful winds at occasions.

ANALYSIS:

Fashions are aligning with possibilities for rain ramping up this weekend. We might see 1.5-2 inches of rain in some spots. Minor flooding is feasible. There may even be a priority for the coastal areas. Coastal Flood Advisories will stick round via the weekend. Water ranges might rise greater than a foot above regular due to sturdy winds from Hurricane Rafael.

Make sure to stick with WDSU First Warning Climate for all the newest updates on this necessary forecast.